Thursday, July 17, 2014

Market Update, Intraday Bounce? IWM

The IWM is still the strongest. One of my last updates I expected a "W" like base this afternoon and we have that in a lot of areas.

Right now I'm inclined to stick with the SRTY longer term core short and the calls just opened, I considered adding to those calls if IWM made a break below support today, but there's just so much damage everywhere else, I just can't justify adding any more exposure without a much stronger reason when the SRTY position is fully hedged.

For example...
 IWM 1 min with a positive divegrence at the move below support I was looking for to potentially ad to the IWM call position already in place.

Intraday this is what I was looking for, possible a move below this "W" base before anything on the upside develops, but this 5 min positive tends to confirm what I expected, a slightly larger, wider base area here.

 This is really the real reason for having ANY long exposure to IWM, a 10 min positive divegrence that has held up for a week. This is what justifies the call positions that are acting more as a hedge for the SRTY core position that I will not let go of.

 Right now, there's just too much damage in the market like this SPY 10 min, the entire bounce area has been distributed heavily, it's hard to trust a market that has a single average that looks like it can bounce, especially with fundamental events changing so fast (i.e. Portugal bank defaults and increasingly hawkish F_E_D tone in a VERY short space).

 QQQ 1 min has also formed the kind of divegrence I was looking for intraday, but again...

There's just too much damage to take any more long exposure which is a known quantity as they are calls. I WOULD NOT let go of my current short exposure, I'm also not thrilled about entering new short exposure with a possible IWM bounce right on the edge.

For now, unless/until something really jumps off the charts, I think patience, maintaining short exposure is the most prudent strategy.

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