Monday, July 28, 2014

A.M. Update

Good morning,

There wasn't much of note overnight, the market seems to be in a bit of a holding pattern right now in front of the major economic report dump this week, although as I said Friday, I expect,

" I'm focussing on what we have seen this week and what that is likely to lead to next week. My opinion is other than maybe some minor noise, the trend should move down"

My view is that the majority of the week is to the downside, the reason I think we have some "noise" like a gap fill, small bounce, etc. is rooted mostly in watchlist stocks that have small divergences or great looking "typical" set=ups that need a small bounce.

Probably the most important overnight event was some small losses in US Treasuries on a WSJ article penned by the F_E_D's Fisher in which he suggests the F_E_D should consider tapering reinvestment of maturing assets rather than holding them to maturity as the F_E_D has said they'd do, essentially shrinking the F_E_D's balance sheet which put a little pressure on UST's.

The major event this week is the economic dump, here's what it looks like.

The most important events are GDP and the F_O_M_C (2 p.m.) on Wednesday followed by Non-Farm Payrolls Friday (8:30), but there's a lot there this week. As I said last Friday, "At this time next week the U.S. could be in recession".

There was a USD/JPY ignition lift just about an hour before the European markets opened, but it hasn't done much for Index futures, mostly flattish at the time.

Across the globe, Asia is up with The Shanghai Composite closing up +2.41% the Hang Send +.88% and the Nikkei +.46%. Europe is closer to unchanged with the FTSE +0.13%, DAX -0.07% and CAC 40 +0.19%.

Also Argentina has until Wednesday to work out a deal with holdout creditors or face a default, word is negotiations aren't going well so we may see Argentina default on debt this week as well.

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