Monday, July 28, 2014

UNG Still Moving Toward Counter-Trend Bounce/Rally

This was the post from last Thursday that laid out the specifics of the reversal process and roughly about what I expected to see as UNG moves laterally to widen out its reversal process which is typically proportional with the preceding trend, UNG / UGAZ / DGAZ Update and here's one of the charts from the post with a guesstimate of about what we should expect before UNG make a move higher.

 This 60 min chart gives a rough idea of what I'd expect to see as far as size of the reversal process, there are other charts in the post linked above that are more detailed.

This is Friday's update as the reversal process clearly was continuing...UNG / UGAZ / DGAZ Update

and here are today's charts, so far so good.
 UNG is broadening out the reversal process, a "V" shape is unusual unless there was a very steep, parabolic move preceding the reversal which is not the case here so we'd look for a wider U shape.

 This is the lateral range forming that is the actual reversal process.

On today's dip off opening highs we have a positive intraday divegrence which is what we want to see, the reversal process should so good accumulation before a launch to the upside.

The accrued divegrence on a 10 min chart looks like this from the downside negative divegrence to the current leading positive. I'd say we have a few more days to go, possibly Thursday's Natural Gas Inventories could be a catalyst or cover for a move higher.


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