Thursday, July 31, 2014

FSLR Position Follow Up- Trade Set-Up

FSLR is a short term put position entered this Tuesday, July 29th Trade Idea (Short Term-leveraged) FSLR . I used August standard $65 Puts as I wanted a little time in case this turns in to something bigger. The trade is working right now, FSLR is down-2.65% today, the puts are up. However looking at FSLR, it looks like there's a larger trade there as well.


 I initially liked FSLR for a shorter term trade because of the leading negative 3 min chart with a VERY sharp divergence, fast/strong distribution, you can see it now hitting a new low (3C).

We also have the 10 min chart leading negative which it wasn't before or else I may have considered a longer term equity short.

As you can see things have grown worse very quickly with a leading negative 30 min chart and this fits with the pace of deterioration in breadth indicators which is borderline astonishing.

And this 60 min leading negative chart only adds to my thoughts about a longer term equity short here.

This is the 4 hour chart, notice an area with a triangle, almost an ascending triangle.

On a 5-day chart which takes a lot to move, we have in line status right up until we get in to 2014, but more specifically things really go south at that triangle.

I'd prefer to enter a trade like this (short) on price strength so the put position will have to finish up first.

With a triangle like that, normally I'd look for a head fake move above it to enter a short, but it seems this market is deteriorating so fast we may not get that, still I don't want to chase this one or any. I would put this on your radar though.

I'll update again soon as we close the put position.

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