Tuesday, July 29, 2014

IYT/ DJ-20 Transports Update

We entered a partial position, about 2/3rds in IYT short last Friday, Trade Idea: (Longer Term) IYT Short based on these charts IYT Charts.

This isn't just interesting as a position, but for those fans of Dow theory, the intensity of the distribution in Transports as a sector is notable as a major market event.

 This is the daily Ascending (bearish) wedge in transports, I personally like shorting head fake moves above the price pattern's resistance as they typically fail pretty quickly as we are seeing now. Any counter trend bounces from here or add-to spots are likely to occur as support of the wedge is broken which we just did today. This gives us some time to see how the price and underlying trade is responding while having a position and allowing room to ass as we see how the asset has reacted and so far so good which has implications (bearish) for the broader market (Dow Theory).

The red arrow is where we entered IYT short, you can look at Dow-20 as well (Transports).

 This is the intense distribution on the IYT 60 min chart, the Dow-20's 60 min chart looked very similar...

Dow-60 min chart with similar distribution. This looks a lot more like a large distribution event rather than the more typical distribution process.

 So far the intraday chart is in line with the downside move

As are the other intraday 2-3 min charts.


Transports tried a small bounce which has failed and is back to in line.

I suspect we will see a bounce /add-to or new position opportunity open soon, based on what I've seen thus far, I'd have no problem either opening a new position or adding to an existing one.



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