I think the reversal process is just about large enough and the divergences look good in UNG, the final thing I'd personally be looking for as far as timing goes (and this is a scaleable concept) and as far as the best entry with the least risk would be a head fake move which would need to break below $20.59 intraday, we'd want to see volume increase so I'm guessing it could be $20.50 which would be more of a psychological magnet, $20 would be ideal, but I don't know if a head fake move would cover that much ground. In any case, that and confirmation of accumulation during the head fake move which I'd say is a very high probability right now, would do it for me as far as some kind of UNG long or UGAZ.
This is the 15 min chart going from negative to in line with the downtrend to a leading positive divegrence, the size of the reversal process is just about proportional to the preceding trend which is what I was waiting for last week when the positive divergences first started popping up here.
This is the 10 min chart leading positive and the reversal process, a head fake move is typical before a reversal, I'd say 4 of 5 times we see it and it's an excellent timing marker as well as lower risk entry and better priced entry.
Looking at a 5 min chart, note all of the positive divergences or accumulation have been at range lows, a head fake would have to hit stops below, I think $20.50 would be the minimum and I'll be setting alerts in the area and a bit below.
This is a sloppy looking range, but taken within the context of the preceding downtrend, this reversal process is just about right as far as the typical proportionality of an upside reversal which tend to be a bit tighter than the reversal process of a downside reversal.
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