Tuesday, July 29, 2014

NFLX Core Short and Call Swing Trade Follow Up

I like NFLX a lot, actually one of my favorite longer term short set-ups and we have an open position there, I have mine filled all the way out and because oof position sizing rules can't add anymore to it,  I will be holding this position as a longer term core short position/trending trade.

However we have also been looking at a NFLX Call position, here was yesterday's update for the position on more of a swing basis, Trade IDea/ Follow Up: (Swing Trade) NFLX

And the P/L for both positions...

The NFLX August (standard) calls which I could add a little to.

And the NFLX longer term trending position which I intend to hold, the call would act as a hedge for the longer term equity short.

And the charts... I suspect we are getting very close to the anticipated NFLX bounce which should set up an excellent short entry or add to position.

 NFLX 4 hour chart which is the highest probability, through the top-formation with a strengthening leading negative divegrence. Of recent interest has been the last pivot high...

 The 2 hour chart gives more detail, again leading negative in to the move and top and deteriorating since.

 The 15 min chart offers more detail, also leading negative so I don't think a NFLX bounce, while it can be impressive, is going to change anything for the equity short position.

As we move to faster timeframes, this is where we get in to the charts for the call position or Swing trade bounce.
 The 10 min chart shows the area where there has been accumulation to kick off the bounce, again nothing that changes the core short position except giving us another opportunity to enter or add to an equity short at a better entry point with less risk.

I believe in the NFLX short enough that I have no problem holding the equity short through what I am pretty certain will be a bounce/corrective move, however the call position just hedges that and offers some extra gains in addition.

Yesterday as we made this small double bottom with a slightly lower low (not quite the stop-run head fake I would have expected) NFLX's bounce looked a lot more mature as far as the reversal process.

At this point I'm content to hold the open Call position, but I think we may get slightly better prices for a call position entry/add to intraday today, if that happens I may consider adding to the call position or maybe even opening a different one with a shorter weekly calls.

The 1 min intraday chart looks like a pullback. I'll have price alerts set , what I'd be looking for is a positive divegrence intraday, at that point if we have enough of a correction to make it worthwhile, I'd add to or start a new NFLX (Swing trade-type) call position. I suppose you could swing trade NFLX itself, but I'd prefer not to tie up so much in capital for a move along the lines of a swing trade.

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