Thursday, July 10, 2014

Market Update 2

The last update took some time to put together, but I ended it with, 

"I suspect we'll need to come down intraday before there's enough accumulation or data to decide whether a long trade for a piggy-back move on a bounce is worthwhile and to make sure that this area holds."

Looks like early signals are in place to suggest that's exactly what's coming and I'm a bit concerned about the IWM, I'll look at that closer. As for intraday signals.
 IWM 1 min intraday leading negative so some price downside should follow. This looks a bit weaker than I'd expect, I'm going to check futures and leading indicators as well.

What we'd need to see is positive divergences building during an intraday pullback to put more trust in to this scenario of a bounce/short squeeze which I still think is the highest, but if Wall St. thinks the market is about to collapse, they'll cut and run, that's what I'm looking for.

 QQQ intraday starting to diverge negatively

SPY doing the same 

And my custom TICK indicator was building all morning, but has started deteriorating so a reversal to the downside is highly probable, that should give us a lot of good data and an area to make some trades if everything checks out.

No comments: