Market Update

This update is the exact reason I keep saying I want to wait, let price come down and see how everything reacts, for a healthy bounce which would make sense here, we should see accumulation of lower prices as we did on the gap down open this morning, but so far what we have as price has reversed just a bit ago not too long after the last update expecting a downturn, actually almost exactly after the last update, is the look of a market that accumulated this morning on the open, not part of a bigger base as was expected, but to fill the gap as there seems to be a decent bit of distribution in to filling or attempting to fill today's gap. 

There's still time for accumulation of lower prices to show up, but thus far let me just say I'm glad I didn't make any additional moves in preparation for a bounce and if the market just happens to bounce tomorrow I won't have a problem with having missed a piggy-back long trade, you have to make decisions with the best information you have at the time and at this time, I cannot justify entering any piggy back longs based on the chats this afternoon.

I also wanted to show you this post before I show you the next which is a bigger picture, Leading Indicators post which will probably open your eyes as to where we really are in the market right now.

 DIA intraday is seeing way more intraday distribution than is necessary for a intraday reversal to the downside, I was a little concerned with this in Market Update 2 today with the IWM. 3C is at a new leading negative low for this chart.

DIA 3 min with accumulation on the 8th, however today's action is distributive as well as migrating across timeframes indicating a stronger negative divegrence.

 There's no reason the DIA 5 min chart should have to go negative for an intraday reversal, note  the DIA missed the gap fill and of course the Dow missed 17k again.

 IWM 1 min was the chart I was a little concerned with earlier today, it has just gotten worse with a new leading negative low on the day.

 There's migration to the 2 min chart which is not just a relative negative divegrence which is all that was needed for a downside intraday reversal, but leading negative and approaching a low below the 8th.

The stronger 3 min chart looks as if the gap down this morning was accumulated only to be sold/distributed in to higher prices today, there would be no reason to do this to sell long positions (you already have the if you are trying to sell them so you wouldn't accumulate the gap down), however if you were trying to sell short in to any price strength, you'd likely accumulate the lows to form support and a lift to short in to higher prices.

Again, another leading negative low approaching the positives from July 8th.

 The IWM 5 min is still in shape which is interesting.

QQQ 1 min filled the gap and distribution became very strong, leading negative after the gap was filled.

 The same happened with the 2 min chart

We can even see it migrating to a 5 min chart which there's no need for.

 SPY 1 min leading negative as the reversal kicks in

2 min seeing migration from the 1 min chart as it too is leading negative

As is the 3 min chart so that's a lot of confirmation, a lot of deterioration and very quickly.

And the 5 min chart is now involved as well.

We will see soon enough if lower prices are accumulated for a bounce, right now though I'm happy to have been patient.