Market Update

The movement in IWM is what I'm most interested in, this is NOT a slam dunk chart, but it is the start of a more serious move which is the first time it has been seen this week. Considering how fragile everything has been with all of the majors in the red right now when they were no where near an overbought status, I want to start wrapping up positions that have downside risk, for instance the IWM hedge calls.

The other averages and some interesting charts...

 QQQ intraday 1 min

 QQQ 3 min trend, this is the 3C trend I expected when we called both bounces the last two previous Friday's in the "week Ahead" posts, SPY and QQQ first and last week IWM.


 QQQ with an interesting intraday move on a 5 min chart.

QQQ 10 min from the bounce area positive divegrence.

 Like the IWM, there's a lot of difference between 10 and 15 min charts such as this 15 min QQQ. If a divegrence or underlying action is not strong enough or heavy enough such as the 10 min positive divergence above on the QQQ chart, it will not show up here, however the 15 min negative divegrence seems to be plenty strong to show up.

 SPY 1 min since last Friday's bounce call... mainly for the IWM, but with the reality of "A Rising tide lifts all boats".

SPY 1 min intraday is also interesting.

SPY 2 min trend showing some of the damage from the previous week.

And the 15 min chart which is pretty clear on what is already a clearer trend on the longer timeframes, in line with the trends from shorter timeframes.

The SPY daily over the same 3-day period.

 IWM intraday 1 min is not a smoking gun, but it is in line.

 This is the chart that matters to me the most right now, the IWM 10 min which has been behind the call for a market bounce, led by the IWM as  all risk on rallies/bounces "should" be. There's not only a relative negative divegrence just showing up, but it is starting to lead. These small changes are important because they are changes in character that few notice, just as we saw the change in character of SKEW days before it jumped to the red flag zone.

 The 15 min IWM had already been weak and not showing any positive divegrence, I mentioned this yesterday in pointing out the large difference between what would otherwise seem like fairly similar timeframes. This 15 min chart has added to its leading negative position, otherwise it has never moved out of line with the decline in the IWM from July 1.

I also found the MSI intraday interesting as it is typically used to goose the market higher via short squeezes which it has done on the open for 4 consecutive days, but like yesterday it is falling apart in to the afternoon, except much worse than yesterday.

Leading indicators are still not showing anything that I'd call significant other than what has been pointed out in VXX and bonds.

Spot VIX is VERY close to a Rising 3 Methods upside resolution.

The last 5 days have stayed inside the real body of 7/17's candle, yesterday's Doji-Star is a loss of downside momentum and today's candle, while small, is engulfing yesterday's body. This is very close to a candlestick reversal for the VIX and the continuation of the 7/17 candle.