Thursday, July 24, 2014

Quick Market Update

Action today is reminiscent of an op-ex pin with the TICK in a range at the extremes of +/- 750 and even more narrow right now.

I'm using the Index futures as a quick update as they reflect the charts of the averages.

 ES 1 min , you can see the negative divegrence intraday to the right.

 TF with the week's highs sold after the open, a small intraday positive that was also distributed in to

And NQ with a similar pattern, weekly highs sold before the open, distribution on the open and currently.

As mentioned, the TICK (all advancing NYSE issues minus all declining NYSE issues) is nearly flat stuck between -/+ 750 which is odd considering the next chart.

For the 4th day in a row our Most Shorted Index (MSI) was squeezed on the open which produced a reading over 1250 on yesterday's open, but faded quickly as no short squeezes are sticking, we even see the MSI falling off faster than the SPX intraday much like yesterday.

VIX Futures on the other hand, which were out performers yesterday as shown intraday and in the Daily Wrap last night look to be under significant accumulation which is not really surprising given the internals, the breadth of this week on what should be a strong bounce and the spot VIX itself as well as the elevated SKEW.

 VXX 60 min chart, it's not just the leading positive divegrence, but the flat range which is where we most often see distribution or accumulation events. Remember, this is VIX Short Term Futures, a rolling 2-month (this and the forward month) ETF.

As far as the IWM calls I opened as a hedge last week and was willing to take a loss on if need be (if that were to happen, the issues being hedged would be at significant gains offsetting the hedge), I may look at closing these soon and take a minor loss. The market certainly isn't performing in such manner that these look like they'll be very effective.

IWM Hedge/Calls


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