Opening Indications

The Financial media would have you believe futures were up due to stronger than expected Global manufacturing PMIs and perhaps a strong Initial Claims beat, but these are just the 30 second sound bites thrown out to explain an otherwise difficult to understand market, I doubt CNBC or any of the other talking heads would be in business long if they tried to explain what really moves the market.

The short of it is we are in a bounce cycle, from what I've seen not an incredibly strong one, it was predicted last week and as recent as last night to continue a bit further, with options expiration and the pin tomorrow, I'd guess in to early next week, however that's a guess based largely on where we are in the week, I'd rather let the market tell us.

Early on it looks like the AAPL put from yesterday is going to work out and GDX has finally started pulling back, if there's a bounce I'd look at a DUST long, but more importantly is whether or not GDX accumulates on the pullback which should answer the question as to whether this is a pullback or the market expects the F_E_D to get very aggressive on inflation and has taken a different view on the Precious metals and miners. I can't imagine a year long GDX base would be dismissed so easily, but the market is the most dynamic organism in the world so it can do as it chooses, I'd hate to see that base/trade fall apart though.

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Early action in the averages is pretty ugly, I'm guessing the NDX won't have the support it had yesterday as AAPL looks to be coming down, I suspected the bounce was some clearing of long positions as AAPL came in light on guidance and that's really what matters in earnings.

I see some other shorts such as NFLX are working, MCP long seems to be doing well this morning thus far and we have a couple of the momentum assets finally getting the bounce we were hoping for, FB would be a notable one, of course it's not a short on a bounce alone, but the bounce will reveal whether it's a short or not and when.

Despite the early softness in the market, the TICK is not that bad, I don't think we've even seen a -1000 print yet, however the daily Rising 3 Methods in the VIX is starting to look very interesting, so I'm watching VXX very closely.

I'll have some charts up in a few minutes.