Monday, July 14, 2014

Market Update

Not much has changed as far as the theme of the day goes, as far as intraday damage, that has grown worse, still not enough to make me call a reversal to the downside or put out immediate short sale ideas, (not  even a full day of distribution vs. nearly a week of accumulation) however as far as what last week's accumulation was actually for, the kind of sentiment changing, spectacular bounce we have been use to seeing in the past or a sell on any strength at all, it seems to be the later.

Here's an idea of what things are looking like which has been , thus far deterioration all day.

 QQQ 3 min worse in the day

QQQ 5 min to give some perspective, but also show that the negative has migrated to the 5 min chart intraday.

 SPY 3 min worsening

An intraday view

And it has also hit the 5 min chart as well

This is to give some broader perspective as to how weak this area is with a 10 min SPY chart.

IWM 10 min shows the strongest positive divegrence, it has not been effected as of yet, this would have to be seeing deterioration for me to start making some short calls.

However like all 3 min charts, more deterioration as the day goes on


 The TICK data lost enthusiasm early, but has gone on to hit an intraday print of -1250, that's a lot of stocks being sold very quickly.

The MSI which has taken a beating is one of the levers I suspected would push the market higher, but this is no where near a short squeeze.

Index futures...
 ES 15 min shows the accumulation last week, most on the head fake / stop run move we predicted we would see that showed up Wednesday.

However since Futures have opened for trade for this week, look at the damage that has been done since Sunday night.
 5 min ES

TF 15 min shows the divegrence which is why I called for a bounce this week, but since then...

A lot of damage occurring on the 5 min chart for TF as well

 NQ 15 min even seems to be seeing some damage already.

The 5 min chart clearly has.

I'm going to go through some other watchlists as well as leading indicators, it almost seems as if someone changed their mind over the weekend, the only thing I can think of ii the Portugal banking troubles, but that may have exposed how fragile the system is as sovereigns were effected immediately.

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