Monday, July 14, 2014

MCP Follow Up...

I decided to close the MCP calls, but not the equity long, mostly out of an abundance of caution as I typically want to get out of a call position like this before the first consolidation takes place, I gave MCP a little more time, but the call position is always meant to be a short term , initial momentum trade.

As far as the P/L,


At the fill of $.34 the P/L came to +126%.

 This selling climax on a stop run under fairly well defined support was what was interesting as long as we could show it was accumulated which we did last week, thus the reason for the call position, but taken as whole, even though a head fake move is often the last thing we see before a reversal (upside in this case), the sharp move still looks a bit too "V" shaped and volume is falling off, I'd expect a wider "W" shape reversal even for a head fake move.

The long term charts have held up well which is why we have continued interest in MCP, this is a 60 min

 And on an intermediate term basis, the charts have held up well like this 15 min

Even short term they have held up well on a 5 min showing the previous call position, there were a few places since then that we were looking for a call set-up, but never got the kind of confirmation signals we'd need to enter an option trade.

MoneyStream was one of the indicators that gave us some early indications that the selling climax was accumulated and it's still in good shape, however I'd normally expect a wider base for a larger upside reversal, something like a "W" so I didn't want to put the call gains at any more risk.

On an intraday view of a 5 min chart, this is not decisive, but it does look like there's at least a decent probability of a near term pullback and a "W" base, enough that I'd rather err on the side of caution.


 The very short term intraday 2 min has held up well, especially contrasted against the broad market today which is why this was a more difficult decision to make, but there's always another bus coming right around the corner.




No comments: