I went ahead and opened the July $465 Put (standard monthly), I don't think I'll need much more time than that and I'll show you why...
First the TICK trend from noon until about 1:15 broke, some of the averages are looking interesting for a fade trade, but one thing at a time.
The long term NFLX Top area seen above on a 4 hour chart already gives us the resolution of highest probabilities as it leads negative deeper and deeper in to the H&S pattern, this is the major underlying flow, this is essentially how long it takes to distribute a position this large and get short in to it , the green arrow to the left is upside trend confirmation so as you can see, 3C is not just going negative anywhere any time, it's confirming the uptrend and going negative where you'd expect it to in a top formation.
As for the right shoulder which I already showed the accumulation at the neckline that created the right shoulder, this 15 min chart gives us the highest probability resolution with its leading negative divegrence. The yellow trendline is the resistance zone in a popular stock that I mentioned was a magnet for a head fake. It may have been that they area in yellow was meant to be the head fake move, but just couldn't get enough traction, I have some signs from late yesterday that NFLX was set up late in the afternoon for a move higher today just before GS upgraded it, but it's a small accumulation area.
The 1 min chart is now leading negative below anything over the last 2 weeks.
The process of migration is important in confirming a head fake move (distribution of the gao) vs profit taking in a real breakout move, however this distribution must be done delicately as to not send prices lower and defeat the entire set up (when UI say distribution, that includes short selling as both come across as sales on the tape).
The 3 min chart shows the continuation of migration so the negative divegrence continues to get stronger, this is where you can see accumulation on a small scale the last 2 or 3 hours of yesterday, just about what you'd expect from a market maker putting supply together for the move which they also trade on their own accounts.
As far as why I don't think I need much more time than July standard monthlies, look at the shape of rice (rounding) and volume, there's no short squeeze here, pros are not going to buy this and chase it up 6% so that leaves it up to retail which won't be able to support the stock, thus I doubt I need much time with no real catalyst (short squeeze) to drive it higher and no real support mechanism.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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