NFLX Position Update

NFLX is getting closer to where I'd like it to be, this isn't a matter of anything other than a process, GS put out a higher price target, they have a reason for doing that, especially in the FACE os rising SKEW this quickly because I can tell you, IT IS NOT RETAIL BUYING DEEP OUT OF THE MONEY PUTS AT A PACE IN WHICH IT HAS DRIVEN PRICE WELL ABOVE THE BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL.

IN ANY CASE, HERE'S WHERE WE ARE WITH NFLX (AND SPECIFICALLY A JULY STANDARD $465 PUT POSITION), or if things look good for a put position then it's just as good for an equity short, although with these extreme moves, this is exactly what I look for in option trades, so long as they are confirmed, which is something I'm trying to be very patient about with NFLX as the ROC of price falls off and a big gap sits just below.

 This is the 50 bar on a 1 min chart and the 22-bar ROC of price (orange). I'm more interested in the 5 min 50-bar and a little more intraday decay that has at least got off to a good start, this is what I'd wager GS is up to right now.

 On a 5 min chart the moving average (50-bar yellow) hasn't reached price yet, so that's one thing I'd like to see, but if circumstances require a sooner entry, this isn't essential, just helpful.

Look at the ROC on a 5 min chart, it shot up, but fell off very quickly. There's obviously not much of a short squeeze in NFLX which I personally like, at least not the kind of shorts who will be squeezed (pros).

The intraday 3C chart is leading negative at a new low not just on the day, but on the week and most of last week, this is why I say, GS is likely very busy doing the opposite of what retail thinks they are doing. This is why I don't watch Cramer, he's GS alumni, the week I was calling for a crash in oil in 2008, he was telling his viewers to buy oil on the Wednesday inventories report if it came in bad and price dropped, then called it a "Contrarian trade", how can millions of viewers doing the same thing at 10:30 Wednesday possibly be contrarian? What it does do is allow someone like Goldman Sachs to sell in to demand, then look at USO during 2008, that's the top we are talking about, I believe somewhere around an -80% decline. Cramer is not that dumb, he's actually quite smart.

 The concept of migration is the other thing I'm waiting for in NFLX for a put, this is the 2 min chart, already showing migration from the 1 min, but not quite where I'd like to see it.

As far as the NFLX equity short, that position is still open and will remain open. The charts that matter for that position (and it's hard to believe people aren't seeing major tops all throughout the market, they'll be obvious in hind sight) are in great shape.

15 min accumulation at NFLX's neckline to create the right shoulder , or what is almost similar to a broadening top.

Note the confirmation then the leading negative divegrence in to the top/highs. NFLX was one of several charts I expected a pop in to , AAPL was another if you recall, it's because of the flat resistance area which is such an obvious head fake target.

And the NFLX big picture, 4 hour with confirmation of the uptrend at the green arrow and a deepening leading negative divegrence and the H&S pattern matures.

The fact we have what I suspect will be a clear, head fake move today above the range, is actually good as far as timing goes as they tend to show up just before a reversal as they create the reversal momentum (think of the buyers/bulls that would be caught at +6% higher prices when panic sets in on a decline below the shoulder's recent highs-that creates momentum, thus, "From failed moves come fast moves".