Tuesday, July 1, 2014

PCLN Looking Interesting, Going to Be A Little More Patient

This is one I've liked and have been looking for a decent place to enter, we might be very close to that.

First the macro picture...
 The weekly chart, note the increased rate of change to the upside in price before PCLN goes sideways in to what we have already confirmed via volume to be a H&S top.

This is the daily chart, the first entry and the best is at #1 if you have patience for it and the second at #2 at the top of the right shoulder where many assets are sitting now. Currently there's a bear flag, since this is a closely watched stock it would be a high probability that there would be a head fake move on the bear flag, leading previously bearish traders to reverse their positions and go long, today makes for a perfect head fake which makes for a great timing indication.

If I have to, I'd be more than willing to take a position as price moves back below the bear flag as this is still an excellent entry in the big picture .

The 60 min chart confirms the previous uptrend to the left and goes increasingly negative at the H&S price pattern, this gives us a high probability downside resolution, but that's a lot of dry powder to put in to a single position and I'd rather have the best timing possible here.

 On the 10 minute chart you can see the distribution at the right shoulder as well as the preceding accumulation that created the right shoulder. To the right the bear flag area which is similar to the overall market, there's a leading negative divegrence here, so overall if I'm looking at this as more of an investor and longer timeframe, this would be a fine place for an entry.

 However looking closely for the best timing, the 5 min chart shows several divergences in the bear flag including confirmation of the move up today on a 5 min chart, before I enter PCLN short, I'd want to see migration from the 1-3 minute charts turn this 5 min chart negative, but as I said, if I had to, I wouldn't be too upset entering just below the bear flag as the head fake move is confirmed.

 The 1 min chart moving in line with price and showing distribution in to today's move, this will always start on the fastest chart and migrate out if the distribution is strong enough.

It has moved to the 2 min chart today as well


And there are signs that it has moved to the 3 min chart as well as there having been late day accumulation yesterday which we have seen in a few other places today.

I'd still prefer to wait for a clear negative in the 5 min chart, but big picture, this is pretty much an excellent entry here.

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