Monday, August 11, 2014

A Few Pullback/Piggy Back Candidates

I had opened a weekly IWM call that was meant for a bounce as this base was forming, the base turned out to be larger than I expected so the IWM call which had an expiration of last Friday was closed at just about break-even, later in the day it turned out to be a double as the market rallied in to the afternoon.

I also opened an XLF call that expires this Friday, I still like that one although I probably won't add to it if given the chance.

Here are a few broader assets that look like they may have a chance for a long/call entry. If there's a sharp pullback that changes sentiment and causes some fear (dropping premiums), I'd prefer to go with options (calls), but if it's not that sharp, then 2-3x leveraged ETFs would be my choice (longs).

 XLF/Financials have a nice/strong 15 min positive divergence that should be good for a decent bounce (thus the XLF calls with an expiration of this Friday).

The intraday 1 min chart is not confirming early upside so there's a decent chance for a pullback here.

And the 2 min chart is one that was already showing a probability of a short term pullback os of Friday.

I prefer sticking with broader assets than more specific ones like a particular financial and leveraged as this is still a bounce and not expected to be anything game changing from the bearish charts for the longer term probabilities which have really already reached.

XLF calls or FAS/UYG long would make decent choices,  remember though, these are speculative positions. The full size positions are to enter short candidates (of which there are many) as a bounce starts to wear out and close in on a downside reversal to continue to a lower low.

 XLK/Technology is another that has a nice "bounce" divergence at 15 min with a leading positive signal.

Very short term the intraday 1 min is not confirming early price strength.

Nor is the 2 min so there's a chance for a long piggy back trade here as well on a pullback. XLK calls or something like TECL (3x long Technology) could be used, I suspect the Q's would come down with any move lower in tech so there may be opportunities there as well like QQQ calls or QLD/TQQQ long.

 QQQ 1 min is not confirming early price strength as suggested above.

And the 2 min chart was putting the probability of an early week (Monday) pullback pretty high up there very short term.

The IWM 2 min is a possibility, this would be my choice if it became available, likely IWM calls if the pullback was deep enough as the IWM has been beaten down the most on the year, if it doesn't pullback enough, maybe URTY long (3x long R2K).

UNG/Nat-Gas) looks to be a larger pullback candidate, this will take a bit more time, but it looks like it still has very significant upside, in fact it has barely started the upside move. This is a 60 min leading positive divergence.

 However very short term UNG looks like a solid pullback candidate as the 1 min is leading negative

The 5 min has a relative negative. This is one of those pullback assets that will likely take a day or two at least to build a reversal process so UNG long positions will be easier to enter or at least offer more time.

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