Monday, August 11, 2014

Z Charts Follow Up

Long term Z is running in to some trouble, in fact it just came out of some trouble, however like the market it has a nice divergence in the area, unlike the market, it's a bit more complete and looks more like it would make an upside swing move with or without the market which is not very common.

 Z 4 hour chart going from a 2 month base to stage 2 mark up in which 3C confirms (green arrow) to the start of distribution and a leading negative divergence from around July 1 through the present so longer term Z will almost certainly be a great short set-up.

I included the 30 min chart just because the 3C trends were clear and there is a roof on any swing move to the upside.
 
This 15 min chart shows the negative divegrence in to higher prices (distribution, but what you don't see immediately is the positive divergence forming to the right. In the big picture of this chart alone, Z is still in trouble, but nothing moves straight up or down.

Zooming in on the 15 min chart...

 The 15 min chart is about where a strong divegrence represents at least a swing trade of a week or more, thus "Z" looks like it would be a fine swing trade in an equity long position, but I'd rather not tie up a lot of assets here when there are other trades I'm interested in.

 The 5 min chart has a similar divergence that has obviously migrated to the 15 min chart, this is the kind of divergence I like, one that filters through multiple timeframes to build a full house.

From the fastest chart at 1 min, now that I know there has been a trend of accumulation for a move higher, I'm looking for the timing so I come back to the fastest charts and as you see on this move/gap down, we have a nice leading positive divegrence, this is very common to see right before an upside move, often a head fake hitting stops to give the upside move momentum and let the middle men who filled the order stock up their inventory.

This concept works just as well on a daily chart as it does on a 1 min chart.

The migration to the 2 min chart is very clear as are the trends from confirmation to divergence.

And the same with the 3 min chart which connects us right back to the 5, 10 and 15 min charts, a full house.

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