Friday, August 1, 2014

A.M. Update

Futures were actually up (ES/S&P futures) by about 6 points overnight until just before and specifically at the European open, it doesn't appear there was any specific catalyst other than weakness across the board in global markets, however that all changed on the release of Non-Farm Payrolls this morning which came in at a miss, printing at 209k on consensus of 230k and down badly from the last (revised) 298k. However there is some silver lining in that this is the 6th consecutive print of +200k job gains which hasn't been seen since 1998.

Back to the dark clouds, the Household survey came in at 131k, down from 407k in June. The unemployment rate rose a fraction from 6.1 to 6.2%, largely on a small decline of people Not in the labor force, from 92.1 million to 92 million.

Here's what ES looked like...
ES weakens around the European open and pushes higher on the NFP miss.

The $USDX declined on the print as 3C has been forecasting the last day or so, Gold was up, Treasuries up and unrelated Crude saw a small bounce.

Interestingly this morning, the first time I've heard of such a thing, the F_E_D's Plosser, yesterday's lone dissenter issued a statement...

"I cast a dissenting vote because I opposed retaining the statement language that reads "…it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends." I viewed such language as an inappropriate characterization of the future path of policy and so may limit the Committee's flexibility going forward."... "In addition, the economy today is very close to achieving the central tendency outcomes for 2015 reported in the December 2013 Summary of Economic Projections. Specifically, the central tendency projection for unemployment at the end of 2015 was 5.8 to 6.1 percent, and that for inflation was between 1.5 and 2.0 percent. From this perspective, we are nearly 18 months ahead of where the Committee thought we would be just seven months ago."

Remember this is an op-ex (weekly) Friday so there will likely be a pin until 2 p.m.

What is a bit interesting about this market is that fear is really starting to move it which is something a bit new, however I suspect we have 1 more buy the dip. You saw breadth last night and how many stocks are under their 40-day, that means many are near their 50-day, a perfect area for a bounce. 

No comments: