The Week Ahead

This is a bit early for the "Week Ahead" post as the best information on the next week is usually the last two hours of Friday, but I think I can see what's shaping up, if I need to revise anything I will as it comes up.

We had some pretty negative TICK breadth today hitting -1500 and -1000 several times, but since about 11:45 TICK extremes we've been trending up (TICK data) and even hit a couple of +1000's.

I think the current charts show a building divergence so I may decide to move some more positions around next week, but not right now.

I suspect Monday we are likely to see something along these lines.

 If you look at where we are now, any upside move would be off a "V" bottom and these are just not common, especially in a situation like this in which market breadth is so massively oversold. At minimum I think Monday we need to test today's lows,  there's a good chance stops are run on a head fake move just below today's intraday lows, but all in all we should have at least a "W" type base which is still fairly narrow, but these deep parabolic moves often have a more narrow reversal process. From the charts I see, I think a bounce is probably likely.

 This is the SPY 5 min chart leading positive, but it needs to build out a larger footprint.

We even have a 10-min positive in the SPY.

As for the daily chart, the bearish Ascending Wedge we have been drawing has broken, the initial break will often pull in new shorts and right after they'll be run out and their stops hit which should be inside the wedge, just above former support/now resistance.

Also notice the Doji Star candle on the day, this is an indecision candle and often a reversal candle, the increasing volume makes the probability of this candle working about twice as likely. Three of the 4 major averages all have this Doji-Star and the VIX has it as well so I think that's a pretty good amount of evidence for a bounce, a bounce though.