Opening Indications

We are down a bit this morning, it is an op-ex max pain pin day (weeklies) as well. What I'm seeing so far makes sense with the degree to which the market is oversold and I never consider a market oversold based on price, but based on breadth which as you saw last night with only 24% on NYSE stocks above their 40-day moving average, down substantially from Wednesday, we are very oversold and I suspect we'll see a decent bounce.

The 3C intraday charts thus far have shown positive divergences in to weakness and there's a larger reversal process/short term base I suspect in the making so I still think we'll get a pretty decent bounce, today's NFP as well as PMI's employment data showing the slowest pace of employment growth in 13 months all help the bullish F_O_M_C/F_E_D perception that the punch bowl might be around longer than anticipated, although note that I said, "perception". In any case, perceptions are what move the market so as of now, I suspect we will build a larger base than just yesterday's and that will be able to support a larger bounce,  the real question is whether things like Portugal's BES create unforeseen problems just like the 2008 credit freeze and banking system lock-up. The other question is how far a bounce can go, 6 weeks ago I'd feel very different about that answer than I do today after seeing how aggressively the last two bounce attempts were sold.

I may decide, if there's sufficient evidence, to move some core positions (like I did with SRTY to URTY and back last week), but I'd need exceptionally strong evidence to do anything like that.