A.M. Update

Ukraine made it through the weekend without the much dreaded invasion by Russia from last Friday's alleged shelling of a Russian military convoy, destroying most of the vehicles. Something felt a little awry Friday when no video evidence was presented and since numerous theories have popped up from an outright fabrication to perhaps a friendly fire incident with Ukraine possibly shelling their own armor, but one thing seems pretty certain, no Russian military was shelled or killed inside Ukraine, that news which sent the market in to a tailspin Friday.

Consequently, like MH-17, it's forgotten and back to risk on...

In the The Week Ahead posy I said, "There normally would have been more mileage out of a base with this much gas in the tank, but the distribution trend this week has been relentless".

I still expect more upside from the base as well as more distribution with it which has been the theme since the start, however I do suspect it will start turning sideways this week as well.

As far as the week's most anticipated event, Jackson Hole where QE2 was forecasted by Bernanke in advance, I don't expect Yellen to offer anything of significance, however that doesn't mean the market, which is running on hope right now, will feel the same between now and then.

I suspect this is the week we've reached pivot #2 or the more important action area, the action area that is in line with long term probabilities so I'll be looking for any opportunity, but likely looking to clean up any longs this week that are market correlated and starting to prepare my list of longer term position trades (mostly short) that I suspect I'll be looking at entering this week, that and looking for the best timing on an actual pivot in the market. Pretty simple really.