Monday, August 18, 2014

Market Update-Deterioration as Expected

we're right on track from Friday's forecast of a little more upside before the market turns lateral and establishes a pivot/reversal process this week.

There are some signals quite a bit sharper than what the trend has been, I don't know if this has to do with the trouble on BATS causing dozens of mini-flash crashes like AAPL and related uneasiness with the fragility of the system (just wait until some real stress is put on the exchanges), or if it's the typical post European close selling we saw last week, or if it's the military incursion by China in to India, elevated tensions in Ukraine over the attack of a civilian convoy (What happened to MH-17?) or it's just as we expected to see this week, distribution getting uglier as this bounce nears its end, but this doesn't look good for the market.

 Friday afternoon our Pro-Sentiment Leading Indicators told us there was more upside, but things are not as stable under the surface, however this leading negative 2 min in QQQ intraday just after the European close is a little sharper than the trend of distribution through the bounce so far.

It's obviously not helping the position of the 5 min chart which has seen migration of the negative divergences/distribution and is close to taking down the base's 10 min positive which is the bellwether for this bounce (along with 5 min Index Futures' negative divegrence).

 The IWM which has had stronger underlying signals short term because it had not broken above even the first upside bounce target, but there's a pretty sharp divegrence there as well.

The SPY is also taking a good distribution hit intraday on this 2 min or for a bigger picture view...

The 3 min chart leading negative and looking like it may hit a new leading low.

My custom SPy/NYSE TICK Indicator shows the slow deterioration of intraday breadth as fewer stocks are trading in the green and more and more in the red.

The MSI was perfectly in line on the open , but now the Most Shorted Stocks are underperforming the SPY, so much for holding a squeeze.

And HYG which is one of the only levers to lift the market or one of the most popular has been deteriorating quickly, today is not helping.


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