Monday, August 18, 2014

MCP Update-Looks Like It's Getting Ready to Move Again

For a very long time I've suspected someone knew something about MCP and their main issue was one of raising financing, which was recently solved for now at least.

The chart below is why I've suspected someone with deep pockets has known some insider information about MCP, namely the financing that we have suspected as being the inside information someone had been privy too and accumulating MCP ahead of time before it came out (just at last earnings) and this chart is the reason I've held my long equity position in MCP, even though there have been numerous times I've considered closing it just to make better use of the funds.

 This is the 4 hour chart. For now I've been focussed on the continued positive divegrence at "b", although longer term I suspect we may look back and see a reason the divergence since "a" has been in place.

When Z recently reported, they announced a financing deal which obviously has been a while in the making. The way Z's price reacted after was more of a "sell the news" action, although often we see similar behavior when there's something bullish that comes out that was not discounted or known by the market, price will drop and give big money a chance to accumulate on the cheap while everyone thinks the market lost interest. This is what I'm a little perplexed by as the long term chart suggests someone has had inside information and been accumulating on it for a  long time.

Either way...

We see strong near term signal developing like the 15 min chart above this 30 min as they both see leading positive divergences in to lower prices, someone is apparently accumulating in to lower prices as if they didn't know about the financing deal, while longer term charts have shown the opposite to the point that we even specifically forecast MCP would get a financing deal based on the longer term charts like the 4 hour positive.

In any case, it's the recent behavior and divergences in to lower prices which are getting much stronger right now that is of interest.

Even short term timing charts like this 1 min are showing the same and below...

The 2 min (there's more positive migration of this divergence right out to the 30 min chart since the downswing from the 8/8 highs).

I wouldn't be surprised to see MCP pop very soon to the upside. For now I'll continue to hold the equity long position,  however if there were a sharp decline like June 3rd or July 10th, I'd look at entering some calls as we have done very well with those set-ups, buying calls on the cheap in MCP with excellent 3C confirmation for some very nice short term trades, but only if we get such a set-up, otherwise I'll just maintain the MCP equity long.


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