Wednesday, August 6, 2014

A.M. Update

 The major news event of the day from overnight/pre-market is Italy's economy entering a Triple Dip Recession this morning with the reporting of its Q2 GDP expected to come in at +0.1 from previous of -0.1, but came in at -0.2 sending Italy in to its third recession since Lehman.

Italy's 10-year yields seem to have been misleading/manipulated which is part of why I recently wrote about the effectiveness of an inverted yield curve in predicting recessions, it has worked I believe 6 of 6 times in the US, but only 1 of 7 times in Japan, point being, I don't think an inverted yield curve is a necessary precursor to a recession and certainly not to a red stock market as Stoxx 600 joins the Dow in being painted red for 2014.

In addition, German Factory Orders came in at a major miss with Bunds going negative for the first time since 2012 at a record low as the flight to safety trade is in full gear.

UK Industrial Production also missed.

Asia was down led by the Nikkei -1.05%.

The FTSE -1.18%, DAX -1.24% and CAC-40 -1.12%

Gold futures are up, Treasury futures are up with 10-year yields at 2.45% and ES...

Fell right after the European open.

It seems the Merger Bubble is coming to an end with 21st Century Fox/Time-Warner & Sprint/T-Mobile both cancelled.

There are reports of inflows into HY Credit ETFs, $120 mn from Monday, the first since 7/7/2014 and $20 mn yesterday in SPDR Barclays HY ETF. It seems the market knows there's going to be a bounce.

For now Futures are down, gold is up and Treasuries are up, but we're just getting started.

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