A.M. Update

It's a tad quiet today ahead of Yellen's speech at 10 a.m. today at Jackson Hole Wyoming. At 2:30 Draghi takes the stage. Yellen is to speak on the Labor Markets and Draghi is expected to speak on the divergence between EU and US monetary policy.

The overwhelming consensus is that Yellen will come off dovish to dial back some of the hawkish tone from the minutes release Wednesday so there's a clear downside risk if she does anything other than come off as dovish.

It looks like we'll gap down this morning which appears to be positions being squared ahead of Yellen, which is most likely the divergence we saw yesterday in the averages in the afternoon as they typically pick up where they left off the next trading day...

Recall...

DIA

The $USDX also looks like it will lose some more ground moving forward after a spectacular first 3-days of the week.

5 min $USDX looks ready to lose more ground.

None of the carry pairs look very impressive this morning so it will be interesting to see if a market lever appears, maybe HYG or if everything (more likely) will just be about Yellen, I suspect the later.