I know some of you already closed out Z weekly calls expiring this week, I'm not sure if any of you have calls or longs so I'd figure I'd update it.
For a weekly call, there may be some volatility on Draghi's talk at Jackson Hole at 2:30.
First the stops...
For long equity trades the 60 min stop channel is probably the best bet, the current stop upon completion of a 60 min candle BELOW the channel is currently at $143.15 and rising.
The tightest stop channel that has held the uptrend is the 30 min, each of the red trendlines were the stop level, there have been no closes below any of them, the current level is $144.35 and rising, although I have a feeling this will be stopped out soon as the character of price is starting to change.
This is the long term 4 hour in which there is trouble longer term brewing in Z, in my view this is not a position long.
This is the 15 min positive that got me interested in Z for a long trade, however you can see as price has moved higher, distribution of higher prices has been the trend as the 4 hour chart would tell us to expect.
The 10 min chart is seeing a sharp leading negative divegrence. This is another reason I think the short term swing is going to stop out soon.
The 5 min Z chart was also positive when we were interested in a long trade here, but like the 10 min chart, it is seeing a sharp divergence the last 2-days, I suspect we are close to a stop out. This doesn't mean Z becomes an automatic short, there's very likely a sideways period (reversal process ) before any short trade sets up.
Finally intraday the 2 min chart which we go back to for timing is also deteriorating, when this turns leading negative I wouldn't want to be in Z as a call or swing trade.
I personally would be considering any intraday volatility on the upside as an exit. We may get some of that at 2:30 on Draghi's comments.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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