Monday, September 8, 2014

AAPL Reiteration

Friday I opened a speculative Call position in $AAPL weekly calls, (expiration the 19th with a strike of $96), Trade Idea (Short Term Options) AAPL Call , this was a pretty small speculative position, but I am really liking the way this looks ahead of tomorrow's product release, however I wouldn't be surprised to see a sell the news reaction later.

In any case, there's a decent chance of slightly lower prices today in which case I'd consider adding a bit more to that spec. call position, but either way I do like it for what it is, a short term leveraged speculative long position. Here are some of the charts including the bigger picture in AAPL which has been strong and has recently seen a negative change in character as well as the short term (call options) position, the signals for that and the chance for a slightly better entry today.

 I was happy to see the 60 min AAPL chart change character and move from confirmation of price to a divergence, but this 2 hour chart which has been in confirmation since the split is also changing character with a negative divegrence going in to the highs before the losses last week.

 The 60 min chart had been confirming as well since the split, it went negative earlier as it should being a faster timeframe showing slightly smaller institutional flows, but they've since grown to hit the 2 hour chart. This divergence was in advance of AAPL's "Cloud" problems, if it's actually a problem on their end that resulted in the leak of pictures of numerous celebrities hacked off their phones, some of which were long deleted thus questions about the Cloud's security.

 The 10 min chart seems to show there was some inside information being traded as the leak story was hitting AAPL's share price, however I'm interested in the most current signal in a flat price range with a positive divegrence through it, thus the reason for the call position. This is not big enough for me personally to warrant an AAPL equity long, but I suppose if you had a large enough portfolio it might make some sense.

 The 5 min chart has good confirmation in the area, note the flat trend after the decline with the positive divegrence running through it, n these flat trends are where we often see the most underlying action as it appears there's nothing going on by price alone.

As for possible better intraday entries for a long/call, the intraday 1 min chart has been spot on in calling out the decline before it happened and the positive that at least stopped the decline and changed the trend to lateral. The action today is slightly negative on the day, but not for the range, thus you may see some slightly better prices intraday on a pullback.

I'll be setting some price alerts below current prices and I may add to the AAPL call position if they are triggered and have decent looking positive divergences on those alerts.

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