Opening Indications

So far there's nothing very surprising in the opening indications, a bit of more of the same from last week, although the lateral chop is widening as volatility picks up in the broad averages, again dispersed this morning with half red and half green.

There are quite a few of the watchlist "Trade-Set-ups" hitting alarms this morning (price alerts) including FSLR, SCTY, NFLX, etc.

Here's the basic concept through most of the averages using the SPY as an example.

 This 30 min SPY chart is one of the longest charts to show the early August accumulation/base which we identified July 31st as the market had a big -2% day down, not exactly the kind of day you'd normally start cleaning up your short position trades and looking at piggy back longs, but breadth had been destroyed and was way oversold, the current situation in breadth is that of a complete stall. Even though Breadth indicators recovered by 20% the first 10-days of the rally/bounce to move out of the oversold zone starting Aug 11th, since then they've lost all momentum and are for all intents and purposes either flat or in many cases have already turned down to 1 week lows.

The August cycle shows pretty clearly what it is used for as strong distribution kicks in just as soon as the former resistance is surpassed. As far as staging, I'd call this a late stage 3 in the cycle with stage 4 (decline) being next in the process.

The Custom SPY/TICK Indicator also shows this breadth process go from bad in early August to improved and then lose momentum and start to turn to the downside again, this would be very consistent with the staging, as well as the flat trend in price itself, which is part of the staging.

 Last week the SPY made a new low for the week on Friday, this is where it picked up some support as it was heading toward a collapew, some of the other averages were even worse. I suspected that this is for a head fake move which I've expected just as a matter of concept.

 Intraday today so far, there's nothing special, pretty much confirmation of early action, at least as of this capture. However...

 The additional little top off (gas in the tank) at last Friday's intraday /weekly low), seems to already be showing signs it's starting to run on fumes, when the 5 min chart is hit, it will be.

The IWM is the exact same concept except this hit 2 (trading ) week lows last Friday, the additional gas in the tank/support at those lows can be seen here and as of now, I think the IWM looks the best as far as underlying trade.

 Intraday today it is in line, although since capturing these fast moving charts, all have deteriorated since.

 IWM's 3 min chart also showed some of the weakness SPY is starting to show, but has recovered for the moment.

 Unlike the SPY and IWM, the Q's hit a 2 week trading low Friday, but did not see the same level of assistance (short term) as the chart is in a leading negative divegrence with no positive at the lows on the 5 min chart.

On a 1 min chart there was minor support for the Q's, I'd say they look the worst of underlying trade, they are in line this morning at this capture, but have since deteriorated. Maybe they figure AAPL will be the support for the Q's, maybe they are just ready to sell the AAPL release, they haven't been revolutionary for a couple of years, more evolutionary.

HYG as a manipulation/market support lever tried to put in a positive divegrence last week which failed, it's trying again here with lateral trade and a small 2 min positive divegrence, but to put that divergence in perspective as HYG is in horrible shape...

 This is the same 2 min chart's trend covering the entire August cycle, so the divegrence it's trying to build should be kept in perspective vs the trend of the cycle, in other words, even if it does, it's very short term in nature and very weak, maybe enough to pull off a head fake move, but not changing the staging of the market.

And HYG at the 5 min chart's August cycle, I wish there were more beta here as this one is heading for a lower low which will put it in a solid downtrend as it will have 2 lower highs and 2 lower lows  and it leads the market.

I suspect AAPL will hold things up until tomorrow's release.