With ES already holding VWAP, the SPX 2000 is pretty much the closing target at this point.
While we knew yesterday/last night why the market would be up today (those Dominant Price/Volume Relationships alone are incredibly accurate), we can only guess as to the ramp. Today it's very clear that AUD/JPY which has been the only ES correlation, was used.
AUD/JPY since the cash open...
There'd an HYG divergence, but not very large...
This has been an ongoing bout of HYG divergences and failures, but at least this 3 min has seen HYG flat or at a slight gain on the day making it a little more credible.
At the next timeframe of 5 mins, the HYG trend is well confirmed as was the HYG stage 3 top's distribution.
As far as the averages (these are tricky as they are short term charts and change so quickly between capturing and posting them...
SPY 3 min and you can see why I posted the intraday decline as it's negative...
The 1 min chart is as well (you can see this morning's positive divegrence, it's only a 1 min chart and a small area consistent with an oversold bounce as expected late yesterday and in the Daily Wrap).
The QQQ 2 min and its positive divegrence leading to intraday gains and the negative mentioned about an hour ago.
What I've been using to judge distribution is the QQQ 5 min chart, you can see what it has done today which is to hold in place and not diverge lower, I suspect this is because you need something to sell in to and that usually is higher prices, but more important demand.
The IWM 2 min and its positive this morning and negative this afternoon, it does look the best of the averages for these short term signals.
At 3 mins there's nothing impressive building here.
This is the TICK/SPY custom indicator for today, y0u can see it moving along with price.
The MSI is lagging price this afternoon, no short squeezes in sight and the NYSE TICK is in a gentle uptrend about right relative to price action.
My guess is the SPX will try to take 2000 by the close as VWAP is already in pocket. Today looks like it can carry on in to tomorrow, there's nothing specially interesting about it, I'm thankful though for the extra time as far as asset selection goes and entries.
All in all it's a dull, expected day, but please remember what I said yesterday and don't let market days like this lull you in to complacency, use higher prices and the time wisely.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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