So far the market has been given the opportunity of a brief reprieve from the incredibly bearish readings from yesterday, an opportunity however doesn't always translate to a successful opportunity. From a daily chart perspective, there's enough volume from yesterday that a few of the small doji/star type candles today in say the QQQ daily chart, could be a toehold that the market can build off. However as of yet, I'm not seeing any big hurry or strong "Buy the dip" sentiment, I think yesterday scared quite a few people.
Here's what we have so far...
This is a VERY small divergence in SPY, it's the type that at best, right now, is a short term consolidation. The SPY will have to do better than this for anything solid to develop.
The IWM looks better, but this is a 1 min divergence only.
Typically with a 1 min positive, if it stays there you have a 50/50 chance of either a lateral consolidation through time like a triangle or a correction through price with a small bounce. If the 2 min chart is added to the mix, the probabilities of a bounce on the upside increase dramatically, still the size of the divegrence says a lot about what to expect and right now it's not telling us to expect much, but we are very early in to the "Day After".
The Q's so far are in line at best.
Intraday breadth has not been good, neutral is white. We've already seen a -1100 and -1300 TICK reading this morning, I suspect some big players are getting out of the way as they don't have the agility to navigate large positions in short periods of time. Otherwise the range has been about -800 to + 400 with a + 600 spike which is nothing.
The SPY/TICK custom indicator shows the SPY lateral this morning and TICK declining which is not good, but again it's still early.
The couple early indications on the positive side that I found were these...
Pro sentiment (Leading Indicator) which has been very accurate has a small positive divegrence, it's not something I'd jump up and down about , but it has the chance to build off this and more importantly.
While HYG is still moving toward that lower low which will change its trend classification with a lower high and a second lower low, High Yield Credit has a small divergence with SPX this morning, this is a little more common as a short term bullish indication, but again, it's early.
For now I'll put up a few more updates and then I'll be off searching for positions.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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