Opening Indications

This morning it looks like we may have a little more upside before that pullback mentioned so I may very well close the UPRO/FAS long partial positions Trade Ideas: (Swing+) UPRO / FAS Long from last Tuesday and the QQQ call from the 16th, Trade Idea (Speculaltive Options Call position) QQQ.

Here's a quick look...

 Most of the averages have a 1 min chart that is in line or a bit better, suggesting they pop to last Friday's intraday high; if so, I have alerts set and I'll check them out again there.

The next timeframes though as early as 2 mins are still negative short term like they were Friday, the basis for a pullback to the area around the yellow trendline establishing a "W" shaped base rather than a sharp "V". I suspect this work would be nearing completion if it weren't for Friday's Op-ex Max pain pin in which I'd guess almost all of the max pain was below with puts as the Fear and Greed Index was pegged at zero (on a scale from 0-100 with zero being the most fearful or bearish), thus making any higher prices useful in capturing all of the premium and causing the puts to expire worthless, especially the way retail trades options.

 SPY 5 min initial positive and the current negative, so I'm pretty certain we pullback and make something like a "W", although a straight line support trendline is almost sure to be shaken out so if we do indeed get the positive divergences in to a pullback, as I have suspected we would since mid-last week when it was obvious a pullback was needed to fill out the 1-3 and some 5 min charts, that head fake/stop run below support would be an ideal long entry , especially if you were looking to play call options.

The SPY 15 min is still in excellent shape and has a much larger positive divegrence with no sign of a negative , not even for a pullback because a divergence for a pullback is small, it's not heavy distribution, therefore it wouldn't show up on this stronger timeframe of underlying trade,m that;'s how we know the probability of positive divergences in to a pullback are high and a pullback would make for an excellent buying opportunity at lower cost and lower risk with a stronger base.

 On a 15 min SPY chart, this is something like what I'd expect from here: in white the pullback, in yellow the head fake move below support that is formed at last week's lows, creating a head fake/stop run below the "W" price pattern, followed by a momentum move higher... "From failed moves come fast reversals", one of the main reasons head fake moves are so common.

 ES 5 min as well as the other Index futures, are showing the same thing, although the timeframe meaning on the futures signals is not exactly the same as it is on the averages.

ES 15 min showing a slight negative divergence, but just about enough for a pullback. Note on the SPY 15 min, it is a stronger version of the timeframe and no such small negative divergence exists, that's what I mean when saying,  " the timeframe meaning on the futures signals is not exactly the same as it is on the averages."

And the ES 60 min chart, a very strong, very clear divergence, again showing probabilities of a pullback accumulating are very high.

As for our custom SPX/RUT Ratio and VIX Term Structure...

 Short term intraday, you can see why I expect a little more upside before a downside reversal to complete the base.

On a slightly longer chart you can see the reversal signal within the context of the larger base, again why I expect we see accumulation and a constructive pullback and...

The bigger picture showing a much larger base, VIX term structure inversion (buy signal) and where I expect price to pullback (yellow) to roughly (and a head fake move).

If/when I close any positions I'll post them first as always. I don't mind holding them through this, but why if I can make some extra money , buy cheaper and sit out any potential risk and of course the option in QQQ would just see time decay.