Monday, October 20, 2014

Quick Position Update

Obviously I haven't added any pullback trades other than the GLD put position, but I'm more specifically talking about the major averages or industry groups, this is for the reasons mentioned earlier, the risk/reward ratio and intraday signals.

However I have been watching them closely and looking around at quite a few assets, I may get in to a few others that are looking interesting such as UNG soon or UGAZ, but for now, among the major averages or industry groups, I'm leaning more toward the SPY than QQQ which has the best 3C relative strength or IWM which is just being squeezed.

One group I'm finding very interesting and was very close to placing an order (short-actually long using a leveraged inverse ETF) is the NASDAQ Biotechs, IBB. The asset that I'd be interested in is the inverse, 2x leveraged BIS (long), thus if I opened a position there it would have the effect of 2x short NASDAQ biotechs (IBB). Again this is a pullback position and as such, I'm still not sold on the risk/ratio relationship just yet.

I still feel the same as earlier, a strong probability of a broad pullback early this week and a stronger probability of a continued move to the upside for the broad market, call it an oversold bounce, thus any constructive pullback (the kind you want to buy in to as the pullback shows accumulation) is essentially a market gift or a second chance buying opportunity.

I can't stress enough how ugly the 5 & 7 min near term Index future charts are. At the same time VIX futures (/VX) are starting to improve with more positive action. VXX or VIX futures move opposite the Index futures so the negative 5-7 min (and even to 15 min is some cases, although minor) Index future signals make sense with improving VIX futures as VIX futures would rise as Index futures fell (their natural correlation).

I'll have a wrap up, but let me get out some of the charts like GLD, USO, perhaps the Biotechs, etc.



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