Tuesday, November 25, 2014

A.M. Update

This time it's the ECB's Coeure's turn, overnight who said he wants the ECB to have an asset buying discussion next week, adding to the recent jaw-boning from from Draghi and Constancio. However the  larger news was the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) that essentially blasted the world economy to smithereens from China to Japan, the US and especially Europe. This is the second global growth downgrade from the OECD in just about as many months, however this one came with a prescription, the ECB needs to buy more assets and if it doesn't, who knows what will happen as advanced and emerging economies essentially slide off  the face of the earth. 

This initially caused some softness in European stocks (the downgrade part) and in to fixed income, German Bunds gained (sort of like the way US Treasuries have recently been creeping higher), but they pared some of those gains, likely on the ECB buying language.

Other than that, macro economic data has been rather light today.

In pre-market action, the divergences in futures is exactly the opposite as yesterday, ES looks to be in line while NQ and TF are the two Index futures diverging negatively, NQ more than TF, but TF is diverging as well and these still run through the 5 min charts as well as the macro charts.

NQ  overnight positive divergence around European open to a negative divegrence pre-US open.

As almost always, the Futures tend to see directional volatility at the cash open so it may be interesting with such low volume.

I imagine volume will be even lighter today than it was yesterday. Thursday all US markets are closed, Friday is a half day with NYSE closing at 1 p.m., volume should continue to get lighter in to Thursday as is common sense, but I am surprised how light it is already this early in a holiday week.

I'd be on the look out for increasing volatility, although they won't want any negative market news before Black Friday, the markets have had a difficult time staying unbroken for more than a week even in the thinnest of liquidity, with liquidity this thin, who knows what could happen.

I'll update the opening indications as soon as they're in.


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