Early Update

Early pre-market negatives in the futures, after an initial directional cash open spate of price volatility gave way and just about all of the averages have given up their gaps, are in the red and not looking too good.

I think there's something a bit bigger on the map behind this which is a post I was just working on and I'll have out in a minute. I mentioned yesterday that besides the historical gains of this week, there's a psychological reason as many retailers are in the red most of the year until Black Friday and the Holiday shopping season where they claw in to the black. From a political and economic perspective, one of the last things you want to have blasted across headlines is the market losing a hundred or several hundred points (speaking in terms of the Dow as that's what most conventional media covers as a household name people can identify with), thus causing doubt about the economy which just saw a pretty big beat this morning on the second Q3 GDP revision.

In any case, I'll address this further in my next post, but for now, the all important Consumer Confidence on the week of Black Friday missed at 88.7 vs. consensus of 96 and a prior of 94.5.

We were already in decline from the pre-market futures divergences before Consumer Confidence came out...

 QQQ already in decline before Consumer Confidence misses at 10 a.m. (yellow)...


SPY in decline and Consumer Confidence at 10 a.m.

Thus far futures and the averages are showing intraday confirmation for the most part, NASDAQ 100 futures still leading negative in Futures.

This just sent shivers down the spine of retailers ...

The Dow US Retail Index on Consumer Confidence's miss, it was in line with the market before that.

If there's a time for the PPT to go active in such a low liquidity market, it is probably now, but this is what my next post I'm finishing up now addresses, apparently it looks like that may have happened last Thursday as the Russell 2000 slid for a week, not exactly the break to stage 4 you want during Black Friday week.

The post will address this, but more importantly the bigger picture, which we have been on the edge of since the suspected head fake move at 11/18 (which was before the "Surprise" PBoC rate cut on 11/21.

I'll also follow up on intraday activity as a slide here will only compound the CC miss, probably the worst miss you can imagine for this particular week and one expected to come in at a handy beat.

Again, the next post deals with this, but there's a bigger, more important component.