Market Update

Since this morning's opening pop and fade followed by the Consumer Confidence miss, I've been looking for signs of PPT activity, I "would think", this is one place, one week that they wouldn't want the market to slip away from them, especially with such low volume and the relative ease of moving the market.

So far no smoking guns. I'll update futures separately so I don't have stale charts. The 3C line itself will look a little different, the divergences are the same, this is because my normal StockFinder platform has a data leak in the stream, if anyone else is using StockFinder and sees the same with a.m. data missing, please send me an email. The Telechart and Tc-2000 versions are the same as SF, they just display the line a little more sharply and don't have as much history.

I'm specifically looking for any signs of market support (PPT) , so far there's not much. I'll check Consumer Discretionary as well specifically along with Futures (which I have checked and will update), so far TF and NQ are in line with a ES that is largely in line, but a intraday positive around the 11:15 (or so) lows, but it's not translating well to the SPY charts.

 SPY 1 min as of the capture, in line with price movement since the open, thus no divergence or interference.

 This SPY 5 min chart will be important in the bigger picture post I'm still finishing up and will have out soon. Note the trend since the gap up open Friday which we said to fade in the A.M. update. Since there's a leading negative divegrence and a sharper negative today on the 5 min, the reason this is important has to do with where the SPX sits in relationship to its broadening top with the head fake concept on a macro view which I'll elaborate on.

 SPY 10 min is not likely to show any subtle intraday interference, but again the overall 3C trend through this area in relation to the Broadening Top and the head fake concept is important for the bigger picture post so I figured I'd just include it as well as the near term intermediate price outlook .

The IWM is in line with the price decline this morning on the 1 min, this is the fastest and most sensitive chart, so any interference from something like the PPT or sidekicks like Goldman Sachs would show up here first, so far nothing.

The 3 min chart is leading negative this morning suggesting the intraday negative divegrence is gaining strength.

And the 10 min trend is much the same as the SPY above, especially in to this morning's gap.

QQQ intraday 1 min is actually leading negative, it has remained so despite the higher low at the 11:15 area.

The 2 min chart is showing migration and confirming the stronger leading negative from the chart above.

And again on a 10 min basis, the same trend is found as the SPY and IWM with divergences at the Friday opening gap we had a fade trade out on (intraday) and a worse leading negative divegrence at this morning.

A Quick look at some Leading Indicators...

 TICK which was in a VERY narrow range all of yesterday until the close has broken down from that range.. Since the capture it has had some improvement, but not a trend.

 The VIX in green vs the SPY (red) as all of the Leading Indicators below will show as, shows initial VIX outperformance earlier and some underperformance at the 11:15 lows area. I wouldn't call this any kind of VIX manipulation as of now.

 As posted last night, the 30 year yield (green) vs the SPY (red) is going to put pressure on equity prices as yields attract equity prices like a magnet. There's additional information I'll cover this morning with The Richmond F_E_D dropping the most since 2006, sending 30 year yields below 3%, this is market negative.

And again covered in last night's Daily Wrap, 5 year yields (after a strong 2 year Treasury Auction yesterday) are also leading the SPX prices lower or putting downward pressure on them as they diverged quite sharply yesterday.

 Pro sentiment intraday is in line, however as a reminder and for new members, since the October rally, pro sentiment is severely dislocated.

 The last divergence between pro sentiment (green) vs the SPY (red) was at #1 at the August cycle's head fake move right before transitioning to stage 4 decline and the October lows, look at the size of the divergence now vs the September divergence. #5. At 2, 3 and 4 pro sentiment is in line with the SPy.

HYG High Yield Corporate Credit was also seeing distribution from last Thursday's 1-day accumulation cycle to support the market (1) yesterday as well as a divegrence between HY Credit and SPY (#2) , this morning there's a little support from HYG at #3.

Yet again the larger picture trend shows the last divergence between HY Credit and the SPX at the September head fake highs before stage 4 decline set in, at 2 and 3 HYG is in line with the SPX, you may remember early October HYG accumulation and my words, "There's only 1 reason to accumulate HYG", the October rally was it, however the divergence between HYG and SPY now is FAR, FAR larger than the September head fake highs sending us to the October lows. "$a" is last week's HYG accumulation and short term (1-day accumulation) support for the market. 

I suspect this had more to do with support for the market coming in to this week and Black Friday than anything else, but this kind of dislocation will not be repaired, it's one of the largest ever seen and it will drag the market lower.