On the move up, especially such a parabolic move, I have little idea how they pushed it other than index weighting as the TICK was in decline and well below a very moderate 750, the kind of reading we see in a dull market. Be aware of the increased volatility, the market is sending you a message about change. All stages in a cycle see increased volatility before moving to the next stage, stage 3 tops see a head fake, stage 2 mark-up sees a move like BABA's Channel Buster.
BABA's insane volatility on the Channel Buster, but has essentially gone no where yet.
I believe it was just yesterday I reminded that volatility often slowly dies down, but can go from a quiet dull period to an insane high in moments, that's what we are seeing today and it's a message of the market.
On the NDX/RUT decline, TICK is working as would be expected with -1350 lows hit, an extreme level and downtrend. I'm very serious about the volatility, there's likely to be a lot of sharp moves today.
TICK barely climbing above 750 near peak highs and moving well below. On the small cap decimation we've seen an extreme level of at least -1350, the upside move should have been at those kinds of readings.
I suspect we are pivoting to stage 4 decline with a mini-very small head fake, whatever it takes to clear the orders above.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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