Thursday, November 13, 2014

Volatility is not over yet

I expect this market will keep  getting more volatile and directional, but for now I don't think intraday volatility is over yet. There are some interesting signs such as the USD/JPY no longer looks blah,, but weakening as opposed to this morning when it looked more pegged. I was going through some of our core shorts that are doing well trying to figure out if this is a good add to area, I like pyramiding up short positions that are working and margin allows certain benefits for actual shorts that it doesn't for longs, those included HLF at a +41% gain, SCTY at a +27.5% gain, NFLX at a near 20% gain (a second position is around +7%) and FSLR at +30%,  that's when I noticed a likely move toward more intraday volatility.


 USD/JPY is going negative here, it wasn't at pre-market/open.

$USDX is in line, but...

 The Yen is showing a stronger positive divegrence.

I doubt EUR/USD moves too much intraday as the Euro looks like this...
 pretty much in line so if it moves, it's likely on $USD movement.

 VIX futures which saw the 60 min chart shoot up to a new leading positive high today are in confirmation.

 The TICK, even on the parabolic move or a countertrend intraday swing still can't pierce the +750 level. Tick is the number of all advancing NYSE stocks less declining ones so a downtrend while the market is moving up means more stocks are selling off consistently while the market is moving up, I have a lot of breadth/internals work to do tonight. HOWEVER THE PUNCH TO -1650 LEVELS IS NOT GOOD, IN FACT IT IS ADDING TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TICK FOR THE MARKET TODAY.

 This  is why I suspect more intraday volatility, the SPY with a positive divegrence intraday, it's still a small one and may just be the bounce right now, but I suspect it is something else.

The Q's with the same 1 min positive

IWM is closer to in line

And DIA has a small positive.

I meant it earlier about volatility, today has been and looks like it will continue to be quite crazy, but volatility at stage 3 is almost always a transition to stage 4 decline

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