Early Indications

After an initial look around, the gist of what I see is in line with yesterday's expectations for a bounce or corrective type move today either a bit higher or in the second form of consolidation, through time laterally rather than through price. While I haven't pulled up the leading indicators layout yet as it's a bit too early, some of the levers that were expected to help today are already failing, so far HYG would be a good example as it is in the red. The TICK trend is again like the last several days in a narrow band so intraday breadth is not impressive thus far.

The relative performance is as we expected, the Q's and IWM leading with the SPY and DIA lagging.

The charts are as we expected, a thin veneer of 1 min charts with little behind to support them. This is early in the day, so it would not surprise me to see this move retraced in the afternoon, but I don't have immediate objective evidence of that, beyond the charts and timeframes which show the highest probability to be down and this move to be one of the "jiggles" I've been describing meant to throw you off balance.

As for the charts, I'll have to update these in smaller posts as they are going to move fast, but so far, pretty much as expected, upside, but in to weakness, thus likely not a long lasting move and the IWM's price movement is parabolic which I never trust. If you want to see what's driving it, just look at USD/JPY, just as we expected, but a move I doubt will hold long.

Nome of the Index futures intraday charts are confirming this move, all are negative on the move.

As I said and as we expected yesterday, USD/JPY sponsored, but this is a crazy parabolic move.

USD/JPY ramp as expected, perhaps because HYG did not participate?

As I said, it's very early in the day, a lot can happen and we know where the highest probabilities are.

 SPY intraday already not showing support and distribution in to early higher prices.

QQQ's positive divgerence from yesterday, but 1 min only and already starting to go negative.

QQQ's 2 min chart with no support, so it wasn't a divergence with much gas in the tank to drive prices for long.

IWM is going negative in to the parabolic move which should fail shortly.

 IWM 2 min with no support at all, just like yesterday.

HYG has some support, but has still dropped below yesterday's close (red trendline).

VXX is seeing a negative divegrence and that helps the market, we'll see how long it lasts.

The most important chart however is the VXX 15 min leading positive, this is the big picture/highest probability resolution, to the upside, thus these pullbacks in assets like this can be accumulated/bought.

 Even stronger VXX 3o min leading positive to the far right.

TLT is actually not looking that bad near term 1 min

And in line at the 2 min chart, Treasuries have killed the shorts this year, returning 6% on 2014 .

However in the midterm charts, I see somethings I'm not crazy about, the longer term are still bullish, I'll take this up later.

 I suspect I need to be watching $USDX and Yen right now as USD/JPY will follow their lead and the market follow USD/JPY.

This is starting to look like an excellent fade trade, fade the morning gains as they are way too parabolic.