Wednesday, December 31, 2014

TLT/TBT Position Management

I hate to do this, but if an edge becomes dull or there's something I don't understand, I can't justify putting a gain at a risk so I'm going to close/cover the TBT (2x short TLT 20+ year Bond Fund) short, which was entered as a way to create a higher liquidity 2x leveraged long of TLT, since there's not much available in the 2x long TLT with any liquidity, I created the position by shorting the inverse, TBT, which effectively gave me a 2x leverage long TLT position.

Near term charts still look pretty strong in both TLT and 30 year Treasury futures and long term charts look strong, I don't quite understand what's going on in the middle, but I'm not taking the chance so I'll be closing TBT short as soon as this is posted.

The current position's P/L is at about an 11.5% gain.

Here are a few of the reasons why and some of the longer term charts that suggest that whatever is going on in these mid-term timeframes, the longer term TLT (20+ year Bonds fund) and 30 year Treasury futures , is still bullish, but perhaps some kind of deep pullback before they make additional gains as 2014 has been a great year for bonds with the bond shorts getting crushed.

 As I said, the short term charts still look like there's a probability of more near term upside, however, this 30 year Treasury future (ZB) on a 7 min chart is showing a negative divegrence which may just be part of a natural consolidation, but I'd rather re-enter after the consolidation than give up the hard fought for gains.

 The ZB 15 min chart also shows the negative divergence and this is a pretty serious timeframe.

 However when you get to the longer term trend charts like this 30 min, ZB's chart is still leading positive.

My best guess is some sort of pullback, probably fairly deep which is accumulated, in which case I'd re-enter at lower prices and lower risk and then a continuation of the longer term trend which looks stable.

The TLT (20+ year Treasury/Bond Fund)...
 As I said, near term it still looks pretty good like this 2 min chart in line with the upside, but like ZB...

at 10 mins. around the mid-term timeframes, there's an unexplainable negative divergence and of decent size.

And like ZB's positive 30 min chart, TLT's 60 min chart is positive and in line with the trend, so I suspect a pullback, but I'll not give up the gains waiting to see what happens, I'll look to re-enter when the edge is sharper.

5 and 10 year Treasury futures look identical.

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