From a Lever's Perspective Only

I'm breaking up these updates just because the charts can move so fast on these shorter term charts.

The 4 levers in control today are 3 we knew about yesterday, VXX, TLT (both down which lifts the market) and HYG (up which lifts the market and creates the SPY Arbitrage).

There's a 4th lever which would normally be the USD/JPY, but because of the Australian Central Bank's rate cut overnight, the 4th lever is the carry pair of AUD/JPY.

I wouldn't say that we have hit a target zone that I would have associated with the last two bounce/bases in January, both cut short due to aggressive selling in to price strength, after all today is only the first day out of the descending triangle and is no where near out of the January chop, that would be the ideal target on a bounce, whether it's achievable or not, is hard to say, although that's why we're putting the pieces together and looking at the composite picture.

First as for the AUD/JPY, I'm not sure exactly why because I don't see any significant weakness in the $AUD and I don't see enough strength in the Yen to warrant a call for the end of the move, but when looking at the pair, they do have a negative divegrence suggesting this lever may be about to run its course.

 AUD/JPY with a negative divegrence in to its rally today on the Central bank action.

 HYG with the positive (1 min) divergence seen yesterday and a very parabolic move today with an intraday negative in to that move, looks a bit delicate...

HYG 3 min in an overall negative position with a parabolic move, it seems they really were trying to get this move off the ground after 2 failures in Jan.

And HYG 5 min in a negative position.

The parabolic move is probably just as dangerous for HYG's near term.

TLT which we pointed out a negative in yesterday, expecting it to move lower today, lifting yields which the market follows.

However from yesterday's negative, today has improved to in line.

TLT's 3 min is in leading positive position so it's not confirming the downside.

VXX clearly negative yesterday leading to lower prices today, but at a relative positive divgerence today, a big improvement in its tone.

And a larger view, still ,lots of overall VXX upside gas in the tank as well as a positive divegrence today on a 3 min

And the same on a stronger 5 min.

I wouldn't call this the end of the bounce, but I would say the levers are already starting to show signs of failure.