Opening Indications

I'm glad I didn't spend too much time on "Greece", the "BIG" market mover yesterday, as I suspected and the reason I dodn't want to spend much time on it, just about everything the market was excited about yesterday is tattered and in the wind today. My gut feeling in last night's Daily Wrap that this wasn't going to end well, has some solid evidence behind it this morning and we'll get to that.

Interestingly, as we are on the subject of the market yesterday, Goldman came out and said 17% and up to 33% at times of their order flow (roughly 20% ) was nothing but buybacks yesterday, Corporate CEO's whose salary is linked to the price of the stock seeking to bolster prices by buying back shares from pension funds and the like. In other words, sort of a 1-off day.

As for the market , lets start with the SPY as an example for the other averages...

 This is the broader view of the SPY/SPX with a solid uptrend in 2013 and part of 2014, turned lateral in to a large, choppy Broadening top.

Our near term forecast was for a pop above a local descending triangle, after all, we haven't observed distribution unless it could be done in to higher prices and demand, thus a breakout above that triangle as the apex narrows and makes it easy, provides those two things and as it does, already we are seeing early signs of distribution. You may also remember what the probabilities were which I posted numerous times in numerous links yesterday , especially in the Daily Wrap and these probabilities were in effect before the market even moved.

 Here's the daily descending triangle, a previous head fake/false breakout attempt, yesterday's downside shakeout or head fake right before an upside reversal as is commonly the case and today's clean breakout above the apex of the triangle.

 On the 1 min chart, this early we are already seeing negative signals forming to the far right this morning, whether they keep up and at what pace will tell us a lot as well as all of the other factors to consider.

Some big fundamental developments have turned 180 literally in less than 24 hours and not for the better, we'll get to that later.

 The SPY positive still reaches out to the 3 min chart and that's it, just like the other averages...

At the 5 min chart there's no sign of a positive divegrence at all, which makes this a high probability head fake/false breakout that should fail easily.

The QQQ 3 min positive and as far as it reaches on a 3 min chart and...

The 1 min chart's damage already in place this early in the morning.

The IWM 3 min is the same as the others above and the 1 min above is showing the same weakness early in the day, we'll see how long this goes on,  but remember before we even saw a breakout I warned not only about the probabilities, but more specifically about the aggressive selling throughout January, I have no reason to believe it has changed, the only thing is the market needs higher prices for that selling to occur which we are seeing a bit of now.

Not the greatest star