Yesterday's action that was mentioned last night and with the question, "What do stocks know that HY Credit, Treasuries and USD/JPY don't?", the answer being, "Nothing". Whether we blame the move on AAPL's CHF / Swiss bonds (drove AAPL/NASDAQ higher yesterday) or whether the head fake above a clear , flat range lasting most of 2015, it seemed plain that it had to be done yesterday before today's EU Finance Minister's Emergency meeting over Greece which at this point could see a relief rally or all of the dominoes fall down, I don't think it will make any difference to the damage already done on a macro basis, but this is why Index futures were so flat overnight and had a sharp bias toward distribution as posted late last night.
In the A.M. Update I mentioned the probability and expectation that the ECB and "others" would try to manage the market in case of a domino effect that gives Greece an upper hand in negotiations, but there are just so many wild cards in play right now (although I don't think any one in their right mind expects anything productive and definitive to come from today's meeting). it's more of a fundamental/news driven environment than ever and I'd expect to see some of those whipsaws as bits and pieces of the summit emerge and don't forget the Minsk Summit over Ukraine as well in which Russia has already issued a statement on their stance regarding US weapons in Ukraine, essentially, "It won't go unanswered". I don't remember a day recently that had such profound possibilities as today all at once, it almost wants to make me just watch the breaking news, but I know that more often than not, the charts will reflect what's going on before it hits the news.
I've been looking everywhere for a clue as to what's going on, intraday there hasn't been much, the earlier speculation that the ECB and "others" may try to keep the market from influencing Greece's bargaining position, may be right on as intraday, it's hard to find much, but last night's Futures update showed a clear risk off tone.
So here's where we are as of right now with the EU Fin-Min Emergency meeting now underway and there seemingly being no hope at all based on Syriza's statements and Germany's.
This is the kind of frustrating intraday charts I have found largely in the 1-2 minute range, this is SPY 2 min, but a bit longer, (as I recommend, "When in doubt", move further out")...
The SPY 3 min chart's action not only recently , but today specifically is right in line with the risk off tone of futures last night, the ECB may be trying to buy up futures and keep things steady. but it doesn't seem like others feel the same.
This is a longer view of the same chart from the 1/20 to 2/2 base, the sharp and unusual moved we saw last week we are seeing again this week, I trust you can see them.
And the 5 min chart NEVER moved up in confirmation, exactly the opposite and in all of the averages, this is part of the highest probability resolution of this swing cycle.
And the longer term, wider range since the October cycle lows has also had a very clear 3C trend in underlying action, one that Dan Loeb confirmed yesterday was his course of action through the Q4 investors' letter from Third Point yesterday.
As for other averages...I'm going to try to get as much out as fast as I can, but as usual, things are starting to move fast and I don't want these to be 30 mins old by the time they reach you.
I also have data on Leading Indicators which are turning and HYG.
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