QQQ / AAPL

In last night's Daily Wrap, I tried to give some historical sense of AAPL's weighting on the NASDAQ 1000 from what we know about past weight schedules, whatever it is now, the point being, it's large and by far the largest weighted component of the NDX, thus moves in QQQ that may have nothing to do with 99% of the stocks (you may also recall the NASDAQ Composite Advance/Decline line posted Monday night).

QQQ charts and AAPL charts, you might be surprised...However this sort of information is what we base head fake probabilities on in forward looking trade set-ups.

 QQQ 2 min seeing that unusual, strong negative intraday activity again. Put in to context of the latest cycle...

 This is the same 2 min QQQ chart with the 3rd base of the year (1/29-2/2) and the unusual behavior or deep distribution 3C signals that started in the NASDAQ first last Thursday, then Friday on a wider basis, again today with each day seeing some nearly extreme version of the first 2 days. Generally speaking, this is the kind of timing I look for after we already have longer term charts (highest probabilities) giving negative signals, or what I have recently said over and over, "Keeping positions in the same direction as the highest probabilities", the other things are the levers and leading indicators, FX, bonds, etc.

 QQQ 3 min also saw the same strong signals, today it is seeing one of the strongest.

 I know I've already posted this, but it's a reminder that the flat, wide/choppy range of 2015 is not without a strong underlying trend.

This is another reminder since the last/strongest accumulation period we have seen at the October lows and the October cycle still in effect at stage 3. I think this 30 min chart gives you a good example of what I mean by " after we already have longer term charts (highest probabilities) giving negative signals".

As for NQ/NASDAQ Futures, you saw the charts last night, a very "Risk off" tone...

This is the 1 min intraday...

The 5 min

And the 7 min

As for AAPL, this not only looks like the resolution of a parabolic move, but of the signals in place there as well.

 AAPL 1 min intraday leading deeply.

 The 1 min chart has migrated to the next timeframe at 2 min as you can see above for today.

And that's hitting the 3 min chart which was already damaged.

 I'd consider this area a head fake move or a distribution area.

You can see why it would be on this 60 min chart, technical traders like buying breakouts, especially to new highs, this is the same area and smart money with positions the size of AAPL, need to be able to sell in to strength and price demand.

AAPL is linked to QQQ as we saw yesterday, it seems we may be seeing the other side of that today.Look for AAPL to put in a large upper wick on the daily candlestick, especially on volume by the close, that would be bad news.