Thursday, February 5, 2015

Opening Update

So far this morning, other than mass loss of central bank credibility , mostly in Europe with the Swiss National bank buying EUR crosses all morning as their soft ceiling for the Swiss Franc fails, and of course the ECB acts as a political power broker in strong arming Greece... it would seem the market is bounce to go green Year to date as it was headed and achieved yesterday before the ECB news came out, that "Green for 15" looks to be the same theme this morning so far, but some interesting cracks are emerging or in some cases have just been in place.

As for Index futures, they were already seeing deterioration which was documented yesterday through just about all timeframes, today as price returns to the scene of the ECB tantrum late yesterday, we have clear divergences developed, these are the definition of a relative divergence ...the same relative area for price, but not the same for the indicator (3c).

 NQ 5 min shows the deterioration that was already in effect yesterday long before the closing hour when the ECB dropped a financial bomb on Greece, you can see as price has returned to the area, 3C is clearly diverging, a relative negative divegrence, in fact it's actually a leading negative divergence, but this is a good chart for the concept of relative divergences.

 The same for other Index futures and longer timeframes as well like ES 7 min

And TF 15 min.

As for the averages, mostly in line in the short term intraday 1-2 min charts, they didn't have much time to fall yesterday after the ECB action so they remain pretty much in the area...
 SPY 1 min intraday appears to be in line, but like the Index futures, the stronger 5 min charts in the averages look like this which is similar to the Index futures.

5 min SPY leading negative as have been all of the averages in the timeframe. Note the reversal process I had drawn in, sorry it's not a great drawing, but I think you get the idea of proportionality.

We'll see where things go from here and I'll have additional updates.

Is it just me or does anyone else feel like the EU is about to come apart at the seams?

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