A.M. Update

Overall the futures' overnight session has been rather flat until a little after 7 a.m. when they lost some ground. Interestingly our last forecast was for the base to finish up Wednesday, bounce Thursday and a dead day today on weekly options expiration at least until around 2 p.m. when it gets a bit more interesting and then for the bounce to carry over and end early next week, however I'll be watching closely today for signs that the bounce that was and almost is depending on the index, may end sooner than that.

Thus far...

 On a 60 min chart IWM looks a little burnt out with those taller upper wicks yesterday and large volume at the end of the day, almost like churning, but it has at least moved.

SPY on the other hand has barely made it outside its base and an odd base at that, which looks like it was cut short right in the middle. This is not the strongest looking base and I suspect there's a reason for that and a reason the market was so opaque and scattered the last day of forming that strange looking base. I suspect smart money or at least deep pockets only have so much time until the F_O_M_C and whatever they need to get done, which by the looks of the Russell 2000 is more distribution in to price strength, perhaps , they may have been running out of time to get that done considering the size of their positions and the time it takes to establish or close them.

 ES 1 min overnight trading flat with a decline after 7 a.m.

TF/R2K 5 min with an ugly 5 min and longer futures chart, I suspect this rolls over sooner than later, but will update you.

And ES 10 min, there's a base, it just hasn't done much with it. Whether that negative divergence to the right is consolidation or just weakness overall, that's what we'll be looking for.

Either way, stage 4 decline has a very high probability of continuing, I'd 3estimate at least 90%.


I'll be digging for the answers and opportunities.

Have a great day.