Friday, March 13, 2015

Market/FX Update: Second Verse same as the First

After looking around quite a bit, I did find a divergence and I should have thought of this sooner.

Earlier in the week after having a very opaque day in intraday 3C signals (Wednesday), we got some upside movement, it's rare for 3C not to telegraph that with a divergence before hand on the intraday charts, but it seems the answer was more in the FX/Currency charts and specifically the EUR/USD.

Today, that's the same thing repeating as the pair once again broke the trendline support of $1.05 and heading toward parity ($1.00).

 This is the EUR/USD (candlesticks) vs ES (SPX futures purple line) on a 1 min chart covering the overnight session until now, note the correlation and I'd suggest causation as well.

Earlier in the week when things on short term charts were muddy, we got some sudden price movement, once again, or actually the first movement correlated to the market, once again a break of support at EUR/USD $1.05

Here's a 7 min chart showing the trade since Tuesday and the EUR/USD leading Es/SPX futures (purple).

So where are we now?
 This is the EUR/USD pair and 3C, note there's a negative divegrence about an hour after the European open . There's a VERY small positive right now, I suspect this may be groping for a bottom, but not quite there.

I looked at the individual currency futures that make up the pair, remember with EUR/USD moving down that means the Euro itself moved down and the $USD up.
 The Euro futures (/6E) with the same negative divgerence early morning just after the European oopen , the same as the EUR/USd divergence above and right now 3C is in line, no positive divegrence as we see hints of on the EUR/USD chart.

So where are the hints of a positive divegrence in the pair coming from? The other currency in the pair, the $USD.
Here on a 1 min $USDX chart we see a matching (oposite) positive divegrence just after the European open and in to its climb this morning (Euro and EUR/USD's fall), it is putting in a bit of a stronger negative divegrence which would mean there's some minor strength developing in the EUR/USD which has led the market this morning, but not due to the Euro, due to a bit of Dollar weakness.

Amazing, how many assets are connected to other assets, MACD on a price chart simply isn't enough any more.

No comments: