EUR/USD More Key than we Realize /GLD

I believe at the moment, which will change at some point, the EUR/USD correlation is one of the stronger and driving other loosely correlated assets. Truth be known, the $USD is actually the real influence, but the Euro has the biggest influence on the US Dollar Index. The EUR/USD's bounce fading is a key timing factor and one I just posted on yesterday showing the charts.

With the European PMI surprise beat, who knows how to really take that with QE , I don't think the market has quite figured out if it believes ECB QE will or can be anything like US QE.

In any case, this was the EUR/USD just before the open, I didn't post it because I didn't see anything stronger than the Euro and USD futures divergences from yesterday, although this morning rather than the $USD looking like it was more divergent for the pair to turn down, it looked like the Euro was more divergent, a minor detail really.

 EUR/USD 1 min chart from before the cash open this morning with a similar intraday divergence as yesterday suggesting the EUR/USD fall, meaning the Euro loses ground, the $USD gains ground, this is a somewhat meaningful tactical aspect to the Quick USO Update post yesterday expecting a little more lateral base work to be done in USO before it can really make a sustainable move higher, but it's more from a tactical timing standpoint of bring USO back down to do that work, not strategic in that it is what is causing that work to be done.

It's a more key aspect to the TRADE Idea (SWING) Gold Short or GDX Short/ DUST Long idea/post from yesterday.

So far GLD may not have made a large move, but the volume and the move it has made suggests we were on the right path yesterday.

GLD this morning, note the early volume on the early decline.

 This is an updated chart of EUR/USD doing as 3C suggested, but it also showed a positive divegrence BEFORE the European open as if someone knew that they'd beat on their PMI which was a surprise, however it may be they were just going to run it up beat or not or it may have been a continuation of sniffing out stops.

The 5 min $USD positive divergence.

 The 10 min $USD positive divergence.

This is not the same thing a the longer term 60 min charts, see yesterday's post. However near term, the $USD looks ready for a bounce which should turn the market lower.

And the Euro 10 min negative divergence, both of these suggest strongly EUR/USD down and the market has been tightly correlated and I figure at least 15 ES points overvalued according to where both are right now without any decline in the pair.

I usually make mention to watch TICK for intraday clues or ROC of price, I'll add EUR/USD to the list of fulcrums today, watch it for a meaningful reversal down, that should be the end of the bounce that has been stalling in the area and looking pretty bad internally.