Market Update

For those who may be interested in yesterday's GLD/GDX idea, TRADE Idea (SWING) Gold Short or GDX Short/ DUST Long & GLD / GDX / DUST Charts, I'm still behind it and so are the charts. There is a gap around $115.20 (GLD) so that may be acting as a magnet near term, but the 2, 3 min intraday charts have just grown worse.

Remember this is a swing idea only, Gold on a primary trend basis looks like it's getting ready for a reversal back to a primary uptrend which we haven't seen in gold since

As for intraday charts, it's difficult to get them out as quickly as I'd like to and still keep an eye on various correlated assets and before there's a move.

In any case it looks like the intraday charts are slipping further which is what I believe is leading to fractures like yesterday after 3 p.m. It's one thing for a market maker or specialist to move the market intraday here and there to try to get the best fills, it's quite another for them to soak up enough supply that it puts their inventory at risk of sizable losses in as little as an hour like yesterday or even a gap on the open. Thus it looks like they are using whatever SPY arb. tools they can to avoid having to soak up enough supply to support the market, but those assets are failing.

Oops, it looks like volatility has already kicked in. In any case, the way I captured most of these charts, they should still be of use to you.

 SPY 1 min intraday confirmation, but this is not what is important as this is just the SPY arb tools shown earlier, there's nothing of any consequence here as far as accumulation, just in line.

I captured the SPY 2 min chart on a trend basis rather than intraday because I believe you can make out intraday for yourself, but the entire bounce cycle is revealed here and you can see where we stand relative to all of that including the base area (white) and confirmation (green).

At a leading negative divergence we obviously have a significantly weakened market. Yesterday's Intermediate Market Update gives you the other charts that are longer term so I don't have to add them to the intraday market updates, allowing me to get these out faster and allowing you to have a better feel for where we are at in the cycle on multiple timeframes.

Nothing has changed about the Week Ahead guidance in so far as that I see a continuation of the stage 4 decline that was interrupted by a normal counter trend bounce that just so happened to have a F_E_D knee jerk move and there's a lesson in that too as that's about to lose all of its gains as transports did yesterday (lost all post F_O_M_C gains).

 DIA 1 min intraday was in line, no better.

Take a look at the same chart scaled to the bounce since the base.

QQQ 1min intraday, you can probably see the divergence pretty clearly.

QQQ 2 min

IWM 1 min looked like it has a little intraday support as of this capture, it has so far been able to maintain that, how long I don't know. On the downside look for a significant increase in volume and maybe a bullish reversal candle on a 5 min plus chart, that would lead to an IWM bounce and maybe some openings for new puts/positions there.

This IWM 2 min chart covering the entire trend shows why I'd want to be looking at IWM puts/short positions on intraday strength which we are probably pretty far from the actual meaning of the word, I mean more on a relative basis.

I'm pointing out the F_O_M_C because as I always warn, "Beware of the F_E_D knee jerk reaction" and how it's usually reversed/retraced within a few days, this chart is telling us that it most likely was a knee jerk move as there's NO SUPPORT, just distribution in to higher prices.

 VXX in line earlier today intraday on the push lower and went positive just before all of the major averages went red.

The VXX 15  in chart and the market's bounce cycle from the base around the 10th, the leading positive divergence is one of the reasons I like replacing the UXVY position closed before the bounce took out the gains from the position.

TICJK is growing worse intraday with a -1100, but since this capture, we've seen a -1250, these are extreme readings and bearish.

Right now at 1:48 p.m. the IWM just saw a volume spike, it may try a bounce here.